How it works
A look at how we estimate your retirement projections.
This tool is for informational and educational purposes only. The projections shown are estimates based on the assumptions you provide and may not reflect actual future results. This is not financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions.
Forecast model v5.1
The forecast that powers your review, insights, and exported reports.
Our Approach
Financial planning can feel like a black box. We aim to make it transparent. Tax and Social Security calculations use published IRS and SSA formulas, so you can see how the numbers are derived and understand how changes to your inputs affect your projections. Social Security estimates are most accurate when you enter your benefit amount from your SSA statement; without one, a simplified approximation based on current earnings is used.
Dashboard charts, review metrics, and PDF exports are all generated from the same forecast model v5.1.
You can also extend the modeled horizon beyond age 95 for early-retirement or FIRE-style plans without changing the core assumptions workflow for everyone else.
What We Calculate
Social Security Benefits
- Your benefit at Full Retirement Age, calculated from earnings using the SSA's Primary Insurance Amount formula (2026 bend points: $1,286 / $7,749)
- Early-claiming reductions (roughly 25–30% smaller benefit if you claim at 62, depending on your Full Retirement Age)
- Delayed-retirement credits (8% per year for each year you wait past Full Retirement Age, up to age 70)
- Spousal benefits (a lower-earning spouse can receive up to 50% of the higher earner's benefit)
- Annual cost-of-living adjustments (COLA) on benefits already in payment
- Full Retirement Age determined by your birth year (66 for those born 1943–1954, sliding up to 67 for those born 1960 or later)
Compare Social Security Claiming Ages (Pro)
Compare how different claiming ages (62, 67, or 70) affect your estimated lifetime benefits.
- Side-by-side projections for each claiming age
- Breakeven analysis showing when delayed claiming may pay off
- Spousal coordination for couples
- Lifetime benefit estimates based on your inputs
Federal Taxes
- 2026 marginal tax brackets for all three filing statuses: single, married filing jointly, and head of household
- Standard deduction, plus the age 65+ bonus ($2,050 for single filers, $1,650 per spouse age 65+ on a joint return)
- Payroll (FICA) taxes on wages: 6.2% Social Security + 1.45% Medicare
- Self-employment tax (SECA) at 15.3% on net self-employment earnings
- Additional Medicare Tax (0.9%) on earnings above $200k (single) / $250k (married)
- Up to 85% of Social Security can become taxable once your other income crosses the IRS provisional-income thresholds
- Enhanced Senior Deduction from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (up to $6,000 per person age 65+, phasing out above $75k single / $150k joint modified adjusted gross income)
Capital Gains
- Long-term capital gains taxed at 0%, 15%, or 20% depending on total taxable income
- Bracket stacking — your wages and other ordinary income are counted first, which can push gains into a higher bracket
- Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) of 3.8% on investment income above $200k (single) / $250k (married)
- Cost-basis tracking, so we tax only the actual gain on a sale rather than the full proceeds
- Capital gains included when calculating how much of your Social Security is taxable
State Income Taxes
- State income tax rates applied based on your state of residence
- No-income-tax states (TX, FL, etc.) reflected automatically
Healthcare Costs
- ACA marketplace premium estimates with subsidy calculations for households up to 400% of the Federal Poverty Level
- Medicare Parts A, B, and D premiums plus Medigap estimates once you turn 65
- Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA) surcharges added to Medicare Part B and D premiums when modified adjusted gross income exceeds the annual thresholds
- Healthcare cost inflation modeled separately from general inflation (default 5% per year)
- Coverage transitions over time: employer plan → ACA marketplace → Medicare
Retirement Accounts
- Traditional and Roth 401(k) with 2026 contribution limits ($24,500, plus an $8,000 catch-up if you're 50+)
- SECURE 2.0 super catch-up of $11,250 for ages 60–63 (replaces the regular $8,000 catch-up during those years)
- Traditional and Roth IRA limits ($7,500, plus a $1,100 catch-up if you're 50+)
- Income-based phase-outs for Traditional IRA deductibility and Roth IRA eligibility
- Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) calculated from the IRS Uniform Lifetime Table
- RMD start age depends on your birth year — age 72 (born 1950 or earlier), age 73 (born 1951–1959), or age 75 (born 1960 or later), per SECURE 2.0
- Employer 401(k) matching contributions
Tax-Efficient Withdrawal Insights (Pro)
See how different withdrawal sequences may affect your estimated tax burden over time.
- Compare withdrawal sequences: taxable-first, traditional-first, Roth-first, or proportional across all account types
- "Tax torpedo" alerts — flagging years when extra withdrawals could push more of your Social Security into the taxable column
- Roth conversion windows — years when your tax bracket dips, making conversions cheaper
- Year-by-year marginal tax rate projections
Goal Planning (Pro)
Track specific financial goals and see how they fit into your overall projections.
- Custom goals for travel, education, home purchases, and more
- Feasibility scoring based on projected balances
- Impact analysis on retirement outlook
Expense Phase Modeling (Pro)
Research suggests spending patterns often change throughout retirement. This optional feature models three phases:
- Go-Go phase: Early active years at full planned spending
- Slow-Go phase: Moderate reduction as activity decreases (default 85%)
- No-Go phase: Lower discretionary spending in later years (default 75%)
Monte Carlo Simulations (Pro)
Monte Carlo runs 1,000 simulations with year-by-year return variation to model sequence-of-returns risk. Results show a range of outcomes, not a prediction.
- Percentile bands (10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th) showing the spread
- Estimated success probability (how often the portfolio lasts)
What We Don't Calculate
To keep the tool focused, we've intentionally excluded some areas:
- Local income taxes (city, county)
- Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)
- Estate and inheritance taxes
- Itemized deductions (we use the standard deduction)
- Pension income (can be entered as "other income")
- Part-time work during retirement
- Long-term care insurance or nursing home costs
- Divorce, remarriage, or complex family structures
- Social Security survivor benefits
- Automated Roth conversion ladders
Default Assumptions
Projections use these baseline assumptions. You can create what-if scenarios to see how different values affect your estimates.
These are starting points based on historical averages—actual future returns and inflation will differ.
Data Sources
Tax brackets, contribution limits, and Social Security parameters come from official sources and are updated annually:
- IRS publications for federal tax brackets, deductions, and retirement limits
- Social Security Administration for bend points, FRA tables, and COLA rates
- State tax rate profiles for state income tax modeling
- CMS and Healthcare.gov data for Medicare premiums, IRMAA thresholds, and ACA benchmarks
- Historical market data for default return and volatility assumptions
Limitations
No projection can predict the future. Markets fluctuate, tax laws change, and personal circumstances evolve. The estimates shown here are meant to help you explore possibilities—not to guarantee outcomes or tell you what to do.
We recommend reviewing your plan periodically and working with a qualified financial advisor or tax professional for personalized guidance.